Redfin’s 2017 Housing Predictions with New Administration
The Redfin leaders predict what the 2017 housing market will look like, under a new president, administration, and policies. The Trump administration touts three major policies that could significantly the U.S. real estate market: infrastructure spending, tax cuts and changes to immigration policy.
Recently, action was taken to deregulate the CFPB, or mortgage industry. But, as these policies take shape, they will primarily affect new construction and mortgage rates. They still see strong buyer interest, with more access to credit and a slight increase in inventory, yet home prices will continue to rise at a steady, controlled pace.
Here are 5 of their predictions:
- The housing market will continue to grow at a slower pace. Baby boomers will be less relevant as the largest generation of Americans, referred to as Millennials, will continue to become of home-buying age. It’s hard to believe they outnumber the Baby Boomers! The strength of sales by area, will depend on the inventory of starter homes, that will meet the demand from millennial homebuyers. In the Sacramento area housing market, construction is abundant on the South 50 corridors, along with areas of Roseville, Auburn, Elk Grove, Granite Bay, and Rancho Cordova.
- 2017 will be the fastest real estate market on record. In 2016, nationally, the typical home stayed on the market 52 days, which is the fastest market since they have been tracking this data. In the Sacramento Housing Market, the median time on the market in December was just 22 days, and in some areas like the Folsom Housing Market, a mere 17 days!
- Nationally, new-construction growth will slow due to the lack of workers. Nearly 1 in 4 construction workers are foreign-born, so stricter immigration policies can make the problem worse. This is the number one issue in the Sacramento home construction industry. Their workforce is only at 40% of the pre-housing crash construction boom. This also attributes to the lack of affordable starter homes for first-time buyers.
- Mortgage rates will increase slightly, but not too much or too fast. Redfin says no higher than 4.3 percent on the 30-year fixed rate, but we are almost there already. Many experts are predicting the mid to high 4s. Although, there are many factors that can move this needle higher or lower, so this one is truly a “wait and see.” Mortgage rates are tied to Bond Markets, which can heavily be affected domestically and internationally. The history of mortgage rates can be viewed here.
- More people will have access to home loans. The government-sponsored mortgage giants Fannie and Freddie will increase the loan limits to $424,100 from $417,000 in most regions of the U.S. Those loans are generally through FHA. You can view the FHA series here. Conventional loans also allow lower interest rates with Private Mortgage Insurance, see the conventional loan product here. With the current efforts to modify Dodd Frank and the CFPB, the qualification requirements could be relaxed. If the HUD effort to decrease the Mortgage Insurance percentage is back on the table, it could have an effect on affordable mortgages.
You can read the entire article on the Redfin website for more of their predictions. The bottom line is “wait and see” what this new administration holds for the mortgage and real estate industry as their policies take shape. Thanks for joining me, feel free to comment, and have a great week.